Andrew John HARRISON

Artist, Designer, Educator & Entrepreneur

Tag: Investing

World Population

As we consider 2011 and what direction the future will take, it is useful to look at the world as a whole and remember that the world we live in today gives us very useful clues as to how the world of tomorrow will look.

Population size and growth are not the only factors to consider, however, they give you a very good idea of where things are headed.

Consider the below chart that shows that 50% of today’s world population lives in just six countries! Wow, only six countries! Clearly, the USA is the most developed of the six – and the others have a long way to go in terms of development – to catch up. This adds up to lots of growth… check it out for yourself:

Real GDP Growth 1960 to 2006

This chart shows real GDP growth from 1960 to 2006. The current economic crisis has dramatically impacted the current growth rates and has resulted in significant contraction. The relevance of this chart is seeing where the growth has been in the past in order to look into the future and see where growth will pick up and gain momentum as we enter an economic recovery period.

Viewing this chart reflects the following:

  1. The Euro Area has been on a long-term decline in growth. Entrepreneurship is stifled. What are the Europeans going to do to reverse this situation? How will they compete with North America and Asia?
  2. The US has consistently generated higher growth rates than the Euro Area, however, growth has slowed too. Big Government and higher taxes are going to limit growth and inhibit entrepreneurship.
  3. Latin America reflects a classic V curve. Plenty of room for future growth.
  4. Another classic V curve. Middle East hit hard by the decline in Crude Oil prices and the US losses of their Sovereign Wealth Funds.
  5. V curve with significant contraction at the bottom of the V.
  6. South Asia shows minor contraction followed by significant growth.
  7. Significant growth in East Asia & Pacific.

Bottom line? South East Asia & Pacific as a region – including China, India, and Japan – looks set for sustained growth in the long term.

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